It’s all about the facts and nothing but the facts

RICHARD CUNNINGHAM

DR Sherman Chan is matter of fact. In more ways than.

As the Australian Property Institute’s inaugural Chief Economist, dealing with facts is what she knows and what she does.

It helps that her top marks included creative writing: now turning raw data into incisive insights for API members.

Or as she said in a recent online post, “commentary that doesn’t beat around the bush.”

“We give members the facts, to make it easier for them to do their job,” Dr Chan told AC.

Her output includes those regular commentaries, a quarterly Market Update, and now a new product:  the 24-page Australian Property Market Outlook.

The difference is that the Update looks back; the Outlook – based on a comprehensive survey of property practitioners – projects forward.

“We’re not just asking for general public opinion,” Dr Chan said. “We want professional views.”

She designs surveys to elicit opinions as well as data, with open-ended questions that allow respondents to expand, “to tell me what I haven’t pre-empted.”

“I personally read every single survey that comes in,” she adds. “And people remark on that: I tell their stories at presentations.”

Her report also includes several 0-10 indices of property market sentiment.

The API Property Market Outlook Index is sitting at 7.1 overall.

WA is the frontrunner on 8.7, Queensland 8.3, South Australia 8.0, NSW 6.5 and Victoria 5.8 (Tasmania and the territories are omitted due to low sample sizes.)

Dr Chan believes Sydney and Melbourne might be subdued partly due to their exposure to global conditions, but “Western Australia always has this degree of optimism.”

Queensland is also upbeat, buoyed perhaps by planning for the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

Overall, the residential outlook remains positive, “although we’re seeing a little retreat from the last three months. But still better than office, retail, industrial or agricultural.”

Office property might be affected by general business confidence and work-from-home arrangements.

Conversely, online shopping could be hurting retail space but benefitting industrial property, via the demand for warehouse space.

The Outlook includes Dr Chan’s Top 7 Research Insights. Among them: “A buoyant property market may give the illusion that it is smooth sailing for property-related businesses.

“In reality, only 3.6% of survey respondents expect no challenges for their business in 2026.

“In other words, 96.4% expect challenges… e.g. the cost of doing business and the difficulty in finding the right talent.”

She recently transferred from a similar role at Business NSW in Chifley Square to the API in York Street, only to have API move its HQ four blocks north to Clarence Street.

But she’s used to change, packing and unpacking. Even at home “a lot of things are still in boxes”.

Her other positions have included stints at APRA, Moodys, HSBC, the NSW Treasury and Audit Office, and MinterEllison.

That’s a lot of jobs but Dr Chan says it’s all been about gaining experience and expertise.

“20 years ago, you might have called me a job hopper,” she said. “But now it’s the norm.”

Born in Hong Kong and living in Sydney from age 14, Dr Chan excelled at mathematics in high school and initially pursued actuarial studies at UNSW.

But she switched to Economics, completing an Honours degree and PhD.

She describes herself as an “economics ambassador.”

“Why economics?” she asks. “I’m just a very curious person and I can see economics in everything.

“It gives you the framework to make investigations, ask questions, do analysis and interpretation.”

There’s one question not addressed by the Australian Property Market Outlook: why Sherman, for someone born in Hong Kong?

Impolite of me, perhaps, but “I knew you’d ask about that!” she laughs.

Her mother, who until recently worked in banking, wanted a name that bridged cultures.

The frontrunners were Sherman and Samantha. Sherman won.