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Top forecaster’s dire prediction if Iran war drags on
ONE of Australia’s top economic soothsayers has a grim prediction if the war in the Middle East is not resolved soon. HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham forecasts Australia’s economy will contract in the June and September quarters if oil prices spike to $US140 a barrel and stay above $US100 a barrel through 2026. That would mean the nation’s first recession, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, since the early 1990s and Paul Keating’s “recession we had to have”. In the “ugly scenario” envisaged by Mr Bloxham, higher-for-longer inflation bec
