Expert report shows new home sales on the rise
Despite higher interest rates and global unrest, new home sales showed a good uplift during April.
NEW home sales during April increased by 4.9 per cent despite rising interest rates and domestic and global uncertainty, according to Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon.
The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“This is a solid result which sees sales in the three months to April 4.6 per cent higher compared to the previous quarterly period,” Reardon said.
“This outcome likely reflects the momentum carried over from late last year prior to recent rate increases, alongside strong growth in established house prices.
“Ongoing housing supply shortages have driven dwelling price growth in some markets and improved the feasibility of new home building.
“More broadly, demand for housing remains strong, underpinned by structural drivers.”
Reardon said strong population growth and low unemployment continue to sustain demand even in a higher interest rate environment.
“These fundamentals suggest that, while interest rates are an important factor, they will not materially alter the underlying need for new homes,” Reardon said.
“However, the capacity to respond to this demand remains constrained.
“Labour shortages and rising construction costs are expected to persist through 2026, while access to shovel-ready land continues to limit the number of homes that can be delivered.
“The inability to unlock more shovel-ready land will continue to place upwards pressure on prices and limit the pace at which supply can increase.”
Reardon added the proposed changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing in the Federal Budget are likely to weigh on investor participation.
“Given investors account for a significant share of new home building, any pullback could see even greater constraints on housing supply moving forward,” Reardon said.
“Emerging domestic and global uncertainty will pose risks to new home building, with the coming months providing clearer evidence of how sensitive demand is to the current environment.”
By state, Victoria recorded a monthly increase of 20.9 per cent, followed by South Australia (+11.5 per cent).
Declines were observed in Queensland (-14.9 per cent), NSW (-3.1 per cent) and Western Australia (-1.0 per cent).
