Interest rate cut may trigger early election
While an election isn't due to be held until May 17 at the latest, the interest rate cut could see voters heading to the polls sooner rather than later.
AUSTRALIANS might get a clearer idea of when they will head to the polls now that the Reserve Bank has cut interest rates to 4.10 per cent
The 0.25 per cent cut is the first in nearly five years.
While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese remains coy about an election date, there’s speculation a rate cut could be enough of a trigger to send voters to the ballot box sooner rather than later.
An election must be held by May 17 at the latest, but with cost-of-living issues dominating political debate, any reduction in interest rates will be front of mind with voters, YouGov’s polling director Amir Daftari says.
The boost to homeowner hip pockets from the Reserve Bank could be enough of a boost to the government, Mr Daftari said.
“A rate cut might be psychological relief among voters that things are going in the right direction,” he told AAP.
“It’s an inopportune time for Labor to win but a rate cut would be an opportunity for the government to get ahead of (cost-of-living) issues.”
Mr Albanese opted to avoid speculation it could lead to an earlier than expected election.
“We respect the independent decision that they will make,” he told ABC radio.
“They’ll make a decision based on economics, not based upon any politics.
“What our job has been to do is to get inflation down – we’ve done that.”
Opinion polls show the government still has a hill to climb to win a second term, with the latest Newspoll revealing the coalition is leading 51 per cent to 49 on a two-party preferred basis.
The coalition remains ahead of Labor in the latest Roy Morgan results, which point to a hung parliament after the election.
Modelling from YouGov projects the opposition will win the most seats, 73, at the election, but that won’t be enough for the coalition to govern in its own right.
Mr Daftari said the longer the prime minister waited to drive to Government House to dissolve parliament, the better.
“If you were behind in the polls, you need as much time as possible to catch up,” he said.
“Given what the polls are showing, (the prime minister) would want to use the last possible day.
“If I was a strategist in Labor, I would advise to wait until the middle of May.”
Interest rates have been on hold at 4.35 per cent since November 2023.
