NSW Bushfires: The 30-year outlook
The southern NSW region of Eurobodalla bore the brunt of devastating bushfires over the 2019/20 summer. Still scarred and rebuilding, climate analysts predict the area remains at significant risk over the next 30 years.
THE so-called Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20 ravaged large tracts of land throughout the NSW south coast regional of Eurobodalla.
Eighty percent of the land in the local government area (LGA) was damaged by fire, included most of its national park.
Three lives were lost, thousands of residents affected, and properties lost.
Four years on, the scarring remains and communities are continuing to rebuild.
It would be difficult to imagine a worse scenario, but the Groundsure ClimateIndex commissioned by The Australian Conveyancer Magazine predicts the once-pristine region will be at even greater fire risk in the next 30 years, making it the state’s most fire-prone regions.
Of the 128 local government areas in NSW, Eurobodalla is ranked the third most at-risk locations, behind the Northern Rivers’ Clarence Valley (2) and The Hawkesbury (1) on Sydney north-west outskirts.
It says as it stands now 2600 of Eurobodalla’s land lots – nine percent of its total – are currently at high risk of succumbing to bushfire.
Weather patterns over the next three decades will create a cocktail of increased lightening strikes. By 2053, nearly 7,700 land lots will make the high bushfire risk category – 26 per cent of the shire’s total. It will be state’s most fire prone area.
In the same period, the Hawkesbury’s conditions will become slightly more resistant, dropping to a ranking of fifth in the state, with 2690 of its 27,770 land lots (9.8%) deemed at very high of being hit by bushfires.
Key data sources for bushfire predictions
- Climate data
- Decadal Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) (2006-2096), CSIRO
- A1FI SRES scenario data (equivalent to RCP8.5)
FFDI is a measure used to evaluate fire weather conditions, factoring in elements such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and drought. This modelled data produced by CSIRO modelled forward how conditions might change given the effects of climate change.
